Considering how much AP, CNN, NBC, and the PPP polls play fast and loose with their internal D’s vs. R’s, there’s really only one poll I put any stock in: Rasmussen. Some interesting numbers from their Tuesday results (underline added for emphasis).
1. RASMUSSEN: “…the president earns support from 45% of Likely Voters nationwide, while a generic Republican candidate picks up 44% of the vote.”
As of Thursday (05.27.11), Obama’s approval rating was 50% (versus 48% disapproval).
Scott Rasmussen writes: “On Election Day in 2012, it is reasonable to assume that the president’s vote total will be close to his job approval.”
Keep in mind Obama won the ’08 Popular Vote: ~53% to 46% and, incidentally, Rasmussen came closest of all the polling outfits to predicting the outcome.
Obama has had as tumultuous a term as a President can have, and while his popularity has dropped from 65% in January ’09 to 50%, he’s still at 50%. He’s shot himself in the foot repeatedly with one gaffe and failure after another, but with the protection of the MSM, I suspect his approval rating will remain rigid between 47% to 52%.
2. RASMUSSEN: “In April, the number of unaffiliated voters in America grew for the fourth straight month. Now, 34.8% of American Adults consider themselves to be Republicans, 33.5% say they are Democrats, and 31.7% say they’re not affiliated with either major party. The April results represent the fifth time in the past six months that there have been more Republicans than Democrats in the nation. They also mark the lowest number of Democrats ever recorded in Rasmussen Reports tracking since November 2002 .”
NOTE: That puts R’s at 34% and D’s at 32%. Consider that the next time you look at a PPP or AP poll where the internals have a 43% D’s vs. 29% R’s.
What this really means is that the ’08 Republicans who weren’t pleased with McCain as their candidate, as well as the conservative-minded independents who sat out the last election, are returning to the Republican fold. The numbers above also reflect the increasing number of independents who have been disillusioned by Obama’s view of the role of government, and swayed by the Tea Party cause. These numbers have hardened and there will be little movement one way or another.
CONCLUSION: Attitudes about Obama have basically solidified. There are those who will go out of their way to vote against Obama in ’12 and those who will vote for Obama no matter what he does. These voters have already made up their minds, and there’s only a very tiny sliver of the electorate remaining that might still be convinced that a Republican is more worthy of their vote than Obama.